LA COSITA ECONOMICA

Long since I wrote last about economy. Trying to write this post in english, as I´m thinking of a more international approach.  Want to make post short so mention:

- Clouds over recuperation.  We´d been living 2010 with good growth in most of the big economies and areas, but suddenly things don´t look that clear............ some advanced indicators as purchasing manage index (pmi) , business confidence and international shipping are showing we may have already peaked  and started some way down for the short term.

- USA is the focus, as most of the time the biggest world economy is the reference, if they get off the trail Europe is going to follow soon and both combined are the big chunk of the world economy.  The picture now is the growth is dimming, unemployment is high restraining the consume capacity.  The FED is shouting they would do what it takes (lot and lot of money printing) but would this be enough?  At this very moment the most probable scenario is a slow growth for some 2, 3 quarters unemployment and deficits keeping high.  Surprises to the upside or downside are very probably.

- Asia is a star on the rise,  with some 4 billion population concentrates around 60 % of the world inhabitants. The biggest economies there are Japan and China,  a rich stagnant country the first and a fast growing power and economy the second.  China as well as India account for most of the world economy global growth in the last decade.  This two countries alone concentrate a third of the word population and both are growing at good rhythm in what seems to be a structural change.............. so Asia is growing and will continue a good pace, whatever happen in the west side.............but Japan and Corea , 1 and 4 asian economies are developed economies and behave more coordinated with US and Europe, so we will probably assist to a weakening of growth there.

So in brief, we are not bad, because we are growing but the outlook is highly uncertain, pains of past recession unemployment and deficit are going to star around for a while.  Though times!